Qoppa as a New Pan-Tumor Synthetic Parameter Derived from Tumor-Associated Biomarkers for Identifying Oncology Patients at High Risk of Metastasis: A Prospective Pilot Study

Abstract

Background/Objective: Early detection of metastatic progression remains a major challenge in precision oncology. Conventional radiological imaging cannot reliably identify micrometastatic disease. Although circulating tumor DNA is promising for minimal residual disease detection, organ-derived response biomarkers reflecting tissue adaptation to secreted factors remain unexplored. We hypothesized that integrating such biomarkers with global laboratory parameters would generate a synthetic variable with improved discrimination for de novo metastasis and mortality. Methods: This prospective observational pilot study enrolled 30 patients (median age 64.4 years; 56.7% female) with heterogeneous solid malignancies. Peripheral blood biomarkers responsive to tumor-secreted soluble factors (n = 11) were quantified using a multiplexed beads Luminex immunoassay. Global analytical parameters (n = 20) were derived from routine laboratory assessments. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering analysis generated two synthetic variables: Stigma (Ϛ) and Qoppa (Ϙ). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression were used to evaluate the performance. Results: Qoppa demonstrated acceptable discriminatory performance for de novo metastasis (AUC = 0.78). For mortality prediction, performance varied by disease status (overall AUC = 0.78): superior in non-metastatic patients (AUC = 0.98) but negligible in those with baseline metastases. Kaplan-Meier analysis confirmed significant survival differences (p = 0.042 overall survival; p = 0.024 for metastasis-free survival in the non-metastatic subgroup). Differences in biomarker expression and clinical variables (stage, tumor burden, and metastatic burden) were observed between the high and low Qoppa strata. Conclusions: In this small heterogeneous pilot cohort, Qoppa provides a proof of concept that integrating organ-derived response biomarkers with routine laboratory parameters may capture clinically relevant signals for metastatic risk stratification in oncology patients. This composite parameter supports the generation of hypotheses for future biomarker-driven research and clinical test development. External validation in larger multicenter cohorts is required before clinical implementation.